MistaFlava's CFL Football Week 5 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2011 CFL Football Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)


This is my first time posting in 2011, had a chance to get a read on some of the teams and some of the players, transactions, injuries and intangibles. Will have a more developed thread for Week 6 with more information as I am back posting full time in preparations for CFB and NFL in a month.

Good Luck to everyone!

-----------------------------------------



Thursday, July 28


British Columbia Lions +3 (10 Units)

I think a large amount of handicappers are putting a bit too much stock in the tragedy that struck the Bombers this week when one of their coaches unexpectedly passed away. I don't want to be insensitive or anything but the death probably hurt this team more than it is going to help them. Apparently all the walk through sessions were tough, guys could not concentrate on the task at hand (practice) and it was generally tough for the players to get their heads right in time for this game. First and foremost it's already a little weird that a team that is 3-1 and playing at home is only favored by three points over a team that is winless in 2011. Anyone who watches CFL Football on a regular basis knows that the Lions are too talented to stay winless and this is one of those rare opportunities to bet them as an underdog and I am biting.

One of the reasons the Lions are 0-4 is because their pass defense can't stop anyone. They just can't. Having said that, they now faced a Bombers offense that is predictable and that has won games running the ball. In the air, QB Buck Pierce has already thrown four interceptions despite throwing five touchdowns and he has been decent but the Bombers as a unit are scoring only 24.8 points per game so far and I said it before, the Lions first win of the season is going to come against an opponent that struggles to score points. Winnipeg is averaging only 252.2 total yards of offense per game this season while the Lions average 369.0 total yards of offense per game and 26.5 points per play. If only they can stop a team for once, their offense is powerful enough to keep games close and/or win this game straight up.

If there is one place in the CFL I would have to say British Columbia loves playing, it has to be Winnipeg. In their last five trips to Winnipeg, the Bombers either won the game (four wins total) or forced overtime and that's good enough for me to continue believing they are going to win games in this place. You have some 60% of the betting public (not large in Vegas figures by any means) invested in the home team with the belief that they are going to recover from the tragedy but I just don't see it happening. The Lions offense is too much.

Trend of the Game: British Columbia is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in Winnipeg.


British Columbia 34, Winnipeg 18





more to come...

 

[VenomousSanction]

Bol Mista

 

[MistaFlava]

Not the way to start a season. Never imagined discussing an 0-5 Lions team but not the saddest to see, hate that team with a passion. Moving onto tonight.

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Friday, July 29


Montreal Alouettes -3.5 (10 Units)

Again it's never easy to go against Hamilton at home but the way I see it we will probably only get value on Montreal when they play on the road and the home lines will no doubt be inflated like they have been in some of their games this season (1-2 ATS at home so far). Montreal is coming off a rare loss, their first of the season and it came at home against the Saskatchewan Rough Riders. From betting on this team in the past and following how they react to bad games, I would have to say they are going to bounce back nicely in this one. Their only road game of the season was at Saskatchewan back in Week 2 and the Alouettes put 39 points on the board in the game and came out with a 14 point win. It was big. Hamilton lost their first two games of the year but have since won against the Riders and against the winless Lions. The win against British Columbia looked good for a while because it came on the road and the Tiger-Cats put up 39 points but we quickly realized the Lions have the worst defense in the CFL this season.

Not sure what to expect in terms of the flow of this game. I know that Montreal has definitely not forgotten the 40-3 ass whooping they took in this stadium late last season. It was an embarrassing loss and the Alouette players who have returned are definitely going to have circled this game on their calendars for a little bit of revenge. On top of that they are coming off a loss. Hamilton has been very good against the run their last three games allowing only 4.9 yards per carry in those games but it's not a concern because the Alouettes have never based their game on running the ball and the have one of the best QB's in CFL history with Anthony Calvillo. Turnovers could play a huge part in this game tonight. Montreal has lost no fumbles in their last three games, a big part of why they are 2-1 ATS in those games while Hamilton have fumbled three times and lost all three in those games while throwing two interceptions. You can't do that against Montreal. The Alouettes have recovered 4 fumbles in their last three games and have also picked off one pass.

So I had to go back and look a little bit more just to find out what the Alouettes record is coming off a loss because if there is one thing I have learned over the years is that this franchise does not like to lose. Coming off a straight up loss, the Montreal Alouettes are a whopping 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games. I knew there was something to it which is why I brought it up in the first place. It's also worth noting that despite the huge loss in Hamilton last year (which is also a situation of coming off a loss and getting some revenge), the Alouettes have covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 games played in this stadium and they have covered the spread in 24 of their last 35 games versus fellow teams from the East. As well as Hamilton has played their last few games, they are taking on a pissed off giant tonight and it doesn't bode well for them. They are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record and I just don't see them avoiding the Als tonight. Should be a good one.

Trend of the Game: Montreal is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games coming off a straight up loss.


Montreal 28, Hamilton 16





more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Friday, July 29


Edmonton Eskimos -8.5 (10 Units)

I don't like going against the Argonauts in Edmonton because this is where they have had tons of success over the course of the years but I think the Argonauts had an overrated start to their season and I think there is some value betting on Edmonton on this very nice Friday Night. Right now the Eskimos are the best team in the CFL at 4-0 and the Argos are near the bottom with only one win. Again the Argos have had some success playing here in the past covering something like 10 of their last 13 games in Edmonton but right now they have some issues all around. What you also have to consider with this Eskimos team is that three of their four wins this season have come by 10 or more points. They went to Saskatchewan and won by 14. They then beat Hamilton at home by 18 and followed that up with a 16 point home win over the winless British Columbia Lions. What was even more impressive was their five point win at Calgary last week as a +3 point underdog because they were outyarded by 155 yards in that game.

Let's break this down a bit. You have to believe the Eskimos are going to score at least 20-30 points in this game. Now the question is...can the Argonauts score more than 10 points? I don't think so. This is an offense averaging only 20.0 points per game this season on 265.0 total yards of offense per game and turnovers has been the biggest problem. The Argos have played four games now and have turned the ball over 11 times (5 interceptions, 6 lost fumbles). That's not going to work against this Eskimos secondary who already have 6 interceptions in four games and a defense that has forced 9 turnovers already this season. Having said that, Edmonton should control the clock for the most part of this game because the Argos secondary is decent and I have a feeling Edmonton will attack the ground instead. The Eskimos average 129.3 rushing yards per game this season on 4.6 yards per carry and Toronto allows 5.2 yards per carry on 127.5 rushing yards per game. They can control the clock, keep the Argos off the board and keep this a low scoring game. Turnovers are going to kill Toronto's chances again.

Edmonton has arguably the best passing attack in the CFL with QB Ricky Ray having thrown for 1231 passing yards in four games, having completed 66.1% of his passes and throwing 8 touchdown passes to 1 interception for 10.4 yards per pass attempt. Awesome. In their two road games this season the Argonauts have allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt so the Eskimos combination of ground and pound plus aerial attack should see them score some 30-40 points even. Toronto comes into this game 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning record on the season and having covered the spread in all their games so far this season, Edmonton has now covered the spread in five straight mid-summer July games. In the past the Eskimos have not played well against weaker teams and they have been a good fade in this spot but with an effective ground game to compliment their tremendous passing attack, I just don't see Toronto putting enough points on the board or even having the ball long enough to score those points. Should be an easy cover.

Trend of the Game: Edmonton is 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in July.


Edmonton 43, Toronto 10





more to come...

 

[JohnMolson]

another piss poor outing for the Als hno:

 

[MistaFlava]

Just awful so far. Wow. Oh well. Capped these games before the weekend. Decided to re-cap this last one and I am on:



Saturday, July 30


Calgary Stampeders -2 (10 Units)

The Riders can't afford to go 1-4 but the way they have played it wouldn't surprise anyone. I have been way off this week but what caught my eye this morning is the fact that despite losing to Edmonton at home last weekend, the Stampeders won the yardage battle by 155 yards in that game and they deserved to win. QB Henry Burris is a very capable quarterback and he gets to face a Riders defense that has allowed a crazy 356.5 passing yards per home game this season on 10.2 yards per pass attempt in those games and I think the Stamps are going to have an easy time moving the ball. Will one of the road teams finally pull through this week or what? The Stampeders have made a living off beating bad teams over the years and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a losing record on the season. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a straight up loss and so far this season have won both their road games. Dating back to last season, the Riders are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and what used to be an automatic win at home for the Riders has quickly become just another place to play. Give me the Stamps tonight. The Riders secondary is just too brutal.

Trend of the Game: Calgary is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a losing record.


Calgary 42, Saskatchewan 34





:toast:

 

[MistaFlava]

Awful week, got the last one. See you all Week 6. Nice job to all who made cash!